Enflasyon dinamikleri, enflasyon sürecinin zaman içindeki değişimini ve bu değişimin nedenlerini anlamamızı sağlamaktadır. Tarihsel olarak enflasyon dinamikleri ilk kez geleneksel Phillips eğrisi çerçevesinde açıklanmıştır. 1980’lerden itibaren rasyonel bekleyişlerin ve nominal fiyat katılıklarının bir arada kullanılması Yeni Keynesyen Phillips eğrisini ortaya çıkarmıştır. Yeni Keynesyen Phillips eğrisi, temel olarak enflasyon dinamiklerini açıklamada kullanılan bir modeldir. Gali ve Gertler (1999) tipi model, enflasyon ve çıktı arasındaki ilişkiyi ve fiyat ayarlama davranışlarını açıklamaktadır. Gali ve Monacelli (2005) tipi model, enflasyon ve egzojen şoklar arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklamaktadır. Günümüzde merkez bankaları, enflasyon hedeflemesine uygun olarak para politikalarını yürütmektedirler. Enflasyon hedeflemesi altında Yeni Keynesyen Phillips eğrisi, merkez bankalarının etkili kararlar alabilmeleri ve politikalar tasarlayabilmeleri açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Gali ve Gertler (1999) ve Gali ve Monacelli (2005) tipi Yeni Keynesyen Phillips eğrisinin enflasyon dinamikleri ve para politikası açısından önemini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada enflasyon dinamiklerini açıklamak için Yeni Keynesyen Phillips eğrisinin uygun bir çerçeve sunduğu ve merkez bankaları için yol gösterici olduğuna ulaşılmıştır.

Inflation dynamics enable us to understand the changes in the inflation process over time and the reasons for this change. Historically, inflation dynamics were first explained within the framework of the traditional Phillips Curve. Since the 1980s, the use of rational expectations and nominal price rigidities together has led to the emergence of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is a model that is primarily used to explain inflation dynamics. The Gali and Gertler (1999) type model explains the relationship between inflation and output and price adjustment behaviors. The Gali and Monacelli (2005) type model explains the relationship between inflation and exogenous shocks. Today, central banks implement monetary policies in accordance with inflation targeting. Under inflation targeting, the New Keynesian Phillips curve is important for central banks to make effective decisions and design policies. The aim of this study is to investigate the importance of the Gali and Gertler (1999) and Gali and Monacelli (2005) type New Keynesian Phillips curve in terms of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In the study, it was concluded that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides an appropriate framework to explain inflation dynamics and is a guide for central banks.

Abbas, S. K., Bhattacharya, P. S., & Sgro, P. (2016). The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances. International Review of Economics and Finance, 43, 378–403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.01.003

Abbas, S. K., & Sgro, P. M. (2011). New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia. Economic Modelling, 28(4), 2022–2033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.04.002

Agenor, P., & Bayraktar, N. (2010). Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empricial Estimates for Middle-Income Countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(2), 555–570.

Aklan, N. A., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2008). Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 21–41.

Batini, N., Jackson, B., & Nickell, S. (2005). An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(6), 1061–1071.

Boivin, J. (2011). How people think and how it matters. Speech. Canadian Association for Business Economics. Ontario, Canada.

Egan, P. G., & Leddin, A. J. (2017). The Chinese Phillips curve–inflation dynamics in the presence of structural change. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 15(2), 165–184. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2017.1325597

Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.151.3712.867-a

Fuhrer, J. C. (1995). The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well. New England Economic Review, 41–56.

Fuhrer, J. C., & Moore, G. (1995). Inflation Persistence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), 127–159.

Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 195–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00023-9

Gali, J., Gertler, M., & Lopez-Salido, D. (2000). European Inflation Dynamics. European Economic Review, 45, 1237–1270.

Gali, J., & Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy. Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 707–734. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00349.x

Gregory Mankiw, N. (2001). The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment. The Economic Journal, 111(471), 45–61.

Kara, H. (2008). Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting. Central Bank Review, 1–16. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/review/

Kara, H., & Öǧünç, F. (2008). Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through: The Turkish experience. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 52–66. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X440604

Kocoglu, M. (2023). Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective. Economic Change and Restructuring, 56(4), 2825–2853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09532-6

Lagoa, S. (2014). Inflation dynamics in open economies: Empirical evidence for G7 countries on the role of import prices and the cost channel. Research in Economics, 68(4), 354–371.

Linde, J. (2005). Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(6), 1135–1149.

Mazumder, S. (2010). The new Keynesian Phillips curve and the cyclicality of marginal cost. Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(3), 747–765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2010.02.003

Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time. Economica, 34(135), 254. https://doi.org/10.2307/2552025

Phillips, A. W. (1959). The Relation Between Unemployment and The Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in The United Kingdom 1861-1957. Economica, 26(104), 283–299.

Piao, J., & Joo, S. (2014). Estimating Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Korea. Asian Economic Journal, 28(3), 239–258.

Ramos-Francia, M., & Torres, A. (2008). Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 19(3), 274–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2008.04.001

Robert E. Lucas, J. (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1(1), 19–46.

Rudd, J., & Whelan, K. (2005). No Title. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37(2), 297–312.

Sbordone, A. M. (2002). Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 265–292.

Svensson, L. E. O. (2002). Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule? European Economic Review, 46, 771–780. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00212-4

Taylor, J. B. (1980). Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts. Journal of Political Economy, 8(1), 1–22.

Vašíček, B. (2011). Inflation dynamics and the new Keynesian Phillips curve in four central European countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(5), 71–100. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X470504

Zubarev, A. (2018). On the estimation of the Phillips Curve for the Russian Economy. HSE Economic Journal, 22(1), 40–58.